Field notes
Wherever the numbers reveal something worth understanding, I write it down: energy systems, data stories, human performance, commercial intelligence. The world-moving systems that fascinate me, plus the occasional human experiment.
Manchester City lead the calibrated consensus at 87.7 expected points, with Arsenal close behind at 85.5, but the margin between them is nowhere near as decisive as it looks. Confidence depends on both simulation variance within …
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The 2021 personal best was part of a genuinely concentrated performance peak, confirmed independently by both the raw time series and age-grade performance, not a lucky isolated Saturday. But the forecast puts the odds of matching …
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Dominance is balanced performance sustained over time: the clubs that stay on top score heavily, control their defensive downside and keep rebuilding that balance through changing squads and managers. It resists the tidy explanations built on …
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